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According to The Guardian...

During his speech, Trump addressed criticism of his tariff policy, saying that the United States is making $2bn a day in tariffs.

In the speech itself, Trump said (at 32m47):

For those of you who want to know the tariffs - you've been hearing about tariffs - we're taking in almost two billion dollars a day in tariffs - two billion a day!

Is the US government receiving $2 billion a day in tariffs? If so, is this a significant change from last year? If not, is there evidence for where Trump pulled this number from?

Note: I'm asking about simple gross revenue on or around the day he made the claim, April 8th, 2025. Not who is paying nor whether this is a net benefit for anyone nor whether it is sustainable. Can the claim clear that simple factual bar before adding complications.

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Is the US making $2 billion a day on tariffs?

No.

The extremely high tariffs (announced on April 2) take effect only on April 9. (What you call the "blanket 10% rate" took effect on April 5.) The Trump quote is from April 8 and uses the present continuous, implying that the US was already "making $2bn a day in tariffs" even before the April 9 tariffs took effect.

Trump (2025-04-08, YouTube):

The tariffs you've been hearing about, ... taking in almost $2 billion a day in tariffs, $2 billion a day, and we're doing very well.

Your question was also posted before April 9 midnight US Eastern Time and uses the present continuous.

So, you're asking about whether the US was making $2 billion a day on and prior to 2025-04-08.

And the answer is "No". Congressional Research Service (2025-01-31):

In FY2024, ... CBP collected $77 billion in tariffs

That's about $0.21B per day.

Trump did increase tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China prior to April 9, but these alone would've been nowhere near enough to increase tariffs ten-fold.

CBP (2025-04-08):

CBP has successfully implemented 13 tariff-related presidential actions during this Administration and each day collects over $200 million in additional associated revenue.

(The "13 tariff-related presidential actions" refer to the tariffs that took effect before April 9.) Assuming this is true and taking the earlier figure of $0.21B a day, that brings the daily tariff take to $0.41B a day, still far short of the claimed $2B a day.

If not, is there evidence for where Trump pulled this number from?

I have none.

We can ask a separate and different question (this might have been the question you actually wanted to ask):

Will the US make $2 billion a day on tariffs from April 9?

Answer: Also no.

Bloomberg (2025-04-08):

All of the tariffs Trump has imposed, along with those he has threatened, since January would generate around $300 billion in annual revenue on average, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Economics. That’s at the low end of the range, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent having floated a figure of up to $600 billion.

Bloomberg (2025-04-04):

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the tariffs could bring in anywhere from $300 billion to $600 billion a year.

"$300 billion in annual revenue" equals about $0.82B per day, while "$600 billion" equals about $1.6B per day.

So, even the high and optimistic estimate by Bessent falls short of Trump's $2B a day.

Some other estimates:

  • The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (2025-04-07):

we estimate the reciprocal tariffs could generate roughly $100 to $200 billion through the rest of Calendar Year (CY) 2025 if they remain in place and $1.8 trillion through Fiscal Year (FY) 2034 if they are made permanent.

TPC estimates Trump’s taxes on imported goods would raise about $3.3 trillion from 2026-2035, plus an additional $190 billion for the remainder of 2025, roughly half of Navarro’s prediction.

Note that the above estimates may not even take into account the likely possibilities of massive retaliation by other countries (already starting to take place with China) and a deep global recession.

  • The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

the negative economic feedback could be significantly larger if tariffs lead to a recession, economic warfare, or loss of confidence by markets.

  • The Tax Policy Center:

TPC’s analysis includes the effects of lower income and payroll tax revenues. However, it does not estimate the effects of retaliation or how much an expected decline in corporate profits and wages would slow the economy. If it did, tariff revenues would be even lower.

Note added on 2025-04-10

On 2025-04-09, after all of the above text was written, Trump backtracked and announced a 90-day pause to the dramatically higher tariffs that were due to take effect on 2025-04-09—with the important exception of China, on which he imposed tariffs of 125% because according to Trump,

They were very disrespectful. They didn't respond right. They retaliated.

The Financial Times (2025-04-10):

The US now has a 10 per cent baseline tariff on imports from all countries ...

Autos and auto parts also dodged the 10 per cent levy — but they remain subject to a separate 25 per cent tariff introduced by Trump last month.

(I'm not sure if for some hours on 2025-04-09, the tariffs might actually have been in effect and enforced and collected by CBP.)

Given the now dramatically lower tariffs (than those that were supposed to take effect on 2025-04-09), it is clear (from the above information and arguments) that at least for the next 90 days (and almost certainly even after), US tariff revenue will not be anywhere near $2B/day.

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  • Let us continue this discussion (about whether it is reasonable to round the numbers up) in chat. Commented Apr 9 at 9:33
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    Total US imports are $3 trillion a year. 10% on that is $300 billion a year. While I'm not familiar with how it works in the US, it's likely they only do customs processing on business days, so about 250 a year. That would generate a $1.2 billion per (business) day, but it's probably irregular, and I believe many people tried to get a lot of things imported before the "reciprocal" tariffs applied, which may have temporarily increased the numbers, though that would be quite a hike. Commented Apr 10 at 9:03
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    I saw there is already a lengthy discussion on the possibility of rounding $1.6B to 'almost $2B' but I think this provides a good guess for the part of the question 'where Trump pulled this number from'. I don't have a source for that but it seems entirely plausible to me that this is precisely how Trump arrived at that figure. Which of course doesn't change anything about the fact that the US is not actually getting anywhere close to this figure. Commented Apr 10 at 9:44
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    Perhaps Trump took the $0.41B from the first part of your answer and added it to the $1.6B from the second part? I realize that the estimate given in the second part is meant to include the $0.41B, but he could easily have not realized that, or not cared. (Because someone was looking for where the $2B number could have come from.) Commented Apr 10 at 16:02
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    Should be mentioned that no matter how many millions a day go to the government, it is all paid for by US citizens. Basically tariffs are nothing but a sales tax. Commented Apr 10 at 22:26
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According to the February 2025 data of US International Trade in Goods and Services, the US imported $401 billion in goods and services. In January of 2025, the number was nearly identical with a .1 billion difference.

A blanket 10% tariff on all goods and services would be 40.1 billion in tariff revenue.

The daily intake on that monthly number would be 1.43 billion dollars a day. (40.1/28). If we combine January (80.2/59) if works out to 1.35 billion dollars a day. The formula used is: tariff income / number of days in period.

So, a blanket tariff of 10% will not make the 2-billion-dollar number.

Additionally, tariffs shrink import and exports. According to Smoot-Hawley WIKI article, imports decreased 66% from 1929 to 1933. We can expect a decrease in imported goods if tariffs are implemented long term. This will decrease the amount of money that will be collected from tariffs.

For China, according to the US Census, we imported 41.6 billion in January 2025 and 31.6 billion in February of 2025 for goods. That is 73.2 billion. Applying a 125% tariff would be 91.5 billion dollars in tariff revenue (73.2 x 1.25). Over a 59-day period, that would be 1.55 billion dollars a day, IF those import rates continue.

However, I would expect a severe drop off in imports from China. Smoot-Harley had a peak tariff rate of 59.1% which mentioned earlier resulted in 66% percent decrease in imports over a long-term period. The current China tariff rate more than doubles that rate. That is not a number that is sustainable for businesses in the short or long term.

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    This answer doesn't name sources and does back of the napkin calculations without explaining the extreme simplying assumptions going into them. Commented Apr 9 at 14:06
  • The value of imported into the US is a number which can easily be looked up. cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/trade or here bea.gov/news/2025/…. Right now, this is running close the ~3.3 trillion dollars a year for imports. A blanket tariff of 10% wouldn't reach those numbers. Of course, the tariffs are changing daily due to escalating trade war(s). One would need to get to around 23% blanket tariffs to get to that 2 billion a day number. Commented Apr 9 at 16:02
  • You can't just use a flat 10% tariff and call the revenue from tariffs, as the value depends on the items in question and their country. Commented Apr 10 at 18:28
  • Hi @JoeW - Everyone has a blanket tariff of 10% now. (4/10/2025) My assumption is blanket means all goods and services. Canada and Mexico do have higher tariff of 25% on certain goods and services. Also, China is a separate animal as its rate seems to vary daily. A blanket 10% tariff will not get to 2 billion a day. However, variable rates tariffs may get there. As shown with China, a 125% could bring in 1.55 billion dollars a day IF the amount of imported goods stays the same as it did in Jan/Feb. But I think many businesses are pausing until the volatility passes over. Commented Apr 10 at 20:37
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    That isn't true; some countries, such as China, still have a higher one at over 100%. This also applies to different item categories. Commented Apr 10 at 21:06

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