OK — I have finally bought a shiny new M2 Macbook so was in a position to risk bricking my old laptop. Of course I don't want that as it seems perfectly fine and I can't hand it on or sell it, but there you go.
But it seem like there is a SOLUTION...!
First of all back up all of your irreplaceable files in case anything goes wrong.
Then you are going to need to create a USB Installer for Mac OSX.
First of all check your hardware for compatibility, here are Apple's support pages for Ventura / Monterey:
macOS Ventura is compatible with these computers
macOS Monterey is compatible with these computers
As my laptop is MacBook Pro (15-inch, 2016) I needed Monterey.
Once you know which version of macOS you need then download it.
How to download macOS
Normally you can download the latest version from the App Store or via System Settings > General > Software update. The installer will download to your Applications folder.
If you want to see everything that is available for your machine you can use the softwareupdate terminal commmand (available since Catalina 10.15) to list and download installers installer.
List available installers:
softwareupdate --list-full-installers
Get the latest installer:
softwareupdate --fetch-full-installer
Download a specific installer:
softwareupdate --fetch-full-installer --full-installer-version 13.0.1
Be aware you can only download compatible installers — I couldn't download Monterey from my M2 Macbook, only Ventura. In my case I downloaded the Monterey installer on my MacBook Pro (15-inch, 2016) and backed it up my NAS. I then transferred the installer to my new MacBook Pro M2 to create a bootable USB installer (but you should be able to do this on the laptop you are trying to upgrade).
You'll need a USB flash drive with at least 14 GB of available storage, formatted as Mac OS Extended. Use Disk Utility if you need to format it.
Create a bootable installer for macOS
You'll need to use a terminal command similar to:
sudo /Applications/Install\ macOS\ Monterey.app/Contents/Resources/createinstallmedia --volume /Volumes/MyVolume
The first part is the path to the installer, and you'll need to replace MyVolume with the name of your USB volume — find it out using one these commands:
ls /Volumes
diskutil list
Restart or turn on your Mac, then immediately press and hold the Option (Alt) key to see bootable volumes and pick the installer.
If you just try to install the normal way you'll get the same SMART error which will prevent you from going further.
First of all make sure you connect to your network by clicking the WIFI icon top right.
Then open up Disk Utility and erase/reformat your laptop hard drive which by default will be named "Macintosh HD".
Then open terminal from the Utilities menu item and run the following command.
/Install\ macOS\ Monterey.app/Contents/Resources/startosinstall --agreetolicense --volume /Volumes/Macintosh\ HD
This is based on installing Monterey to the default volume — update the macOS name accordingly and change Macintosh HD to a different name if you called it something else. You can use the ls /Volumes or diskutil list to check the volume names.
This method should install successfully!
In my case the SMART issue seemed like it was related to the age of the drive and having had a lot of data read/written... Obviously it could still fail but for now I have breathed some more life into my old machine...!!!